Welcome to the February 1st edition of the Smart Wealth Newsletter. As always, we appreciate you joining us as we share how our family approaches investing, markets, and real estate with a long-term wealth-building mindset.

Chris continues to focus on disciplined portfolio construction and owning high-quality businesses through market cycles rather than reacting to short-term noise. Trip attends the Freeman Business School at Tulane University, where he’s studying finance, valuation, and macro trends that directly influence how he thinks about portfolio construction. Frankie, now a senior at All Saints Academy, stays actively engaged in the markets and continues building real-world investing skills through his own portfolio.

This newsletter reflects how our family invests together — emphasizing education, patience, and long-term compounding.

The final full week of January reminded investors that strong trends can coexist with sharp, short-lived pullbacks. Early in the week, enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, better-than-feared corporate guidance, and steady economic data helped push U.S. stocks higher. By midweek, the S&P 500 briefly crossed the 7,000 level for the first time, a psychological milestone that reflected how much confidence the market has placed in mega-cap technology leadership. But Friday delivered a reality check. By the close on Friday, January 30, the S&P 500 finished at 6,939.03, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 48,892.47, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,461.82. All three were down on the day, with the Nasdaq leading the decline, which is typical when investors rotate away from higher-growth stocks and reduce risk exposure.

To understand the week, it helps to separate what moved prices from what changed fundamentals. Fundamentals—earnings power, competitive advantages, and long-run cash flows—shift slowly. Prices, by contrast, respond instantly to positioning, headlines, and how investors discount the future. The early-week rally was driven by the same forces that have powered the market for months: the belief that AI spending will remain robust, that leading platforms can keep expanding margins, and that the economy can continue growing without reigniting runaway inflation. Those assumptions may ultimately prove right, but when markets push to new highs, even a small uncertainty can trigger a fast wave of profit-taking.

The “AI trade” continues to matter because it is not a single-company story; it is an ecosystem story. Big cloud platforms are spending heavily on data centers. Semiconductor leaders are shipping the compute horsepower that makes modern AI possible. Software companies are embedding AI into products that can raise productivity and reduce customer churn. When that whole ecosystem is firing, the market tends to reward the largest, most liquid names first, which lifts the indexes. The flip side is concentration: if a handful of companies represent an outsized share of index gains, then any pause in those names can weigh on the entire market even if many other sectors are doing fine.

Earnings season amplified that dynamic. Investors went into the week expecting a strong quarter for many technology and platform businesses, and the market’s climb reflected that expectation. In periods like this, results don’t just need to be good; they often need to be better than good. When valuations are elevated, the bar rises. A strong report can still lead to selling if the market had already priced in perfection. That’s why you often see “sell the news” behavior around earnings even when the underlying business momentum remains intact.

Monetary policy was the other key input. The market is less focused on what the Federal Reserve did last meeting and more focused on what it might do next and when. Rate expectations matter because they influence the discount rate applied to future earnings. Higher expected rates generally compress price-to-earnings multiples, especially for companies where a larger share of value lies in cash flows expected far in the future. That’s why the Nasdaq typically reacts more sharply to policy uncertainty than the Dow, which contains more mature, dividend-paying companies with nearer-term cash flows.

Friday’s session reflected that kind of perception shift. News flow about potential future Fed leadership and the broader direction of monetary policy introduced uncertainty at a moment when the market had just celebrated a major milestone. In markets, uncertainty is not simply “bad news”; it is unpriced risk. When investors don’t know how to value the next set of policy choices, they tend to reduce exposure, rotate into less volatile areas, and demand a bigger margin of safety. That process can look abrupt even when nothing “broke” in the real economy.

Currency and commodity moves added texture to the week. The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday, which can tighten financial conditions at the margin and pressure earnings translation for global companies. At the same time, gold and silver reversed sharply after strong runs. When you see risk assets falling and safe-haven assets falling too, it often signals an unwind of crowded positions rather than a clean “risk-off” migration. In plain English: too many traders were on the same side of the boat, and when the boat tilted, everyone rushed to rebalance at once.

Sector behavior also made sense in that context. Technology and other high-duration growth areas underperformed, while more defensive sectors held up better. That does not automatically mean investors are bearish; it can be simple rebalancing. Late January is a natural time for institutions to lock in gains, reset exposures, and prepare for February catalysts. It is also a moment when investors ask a straightforward question: after a big move higher, what has already been priced in? If the answer is “a lot,” then the market becomes more sensitive to any data point that threatens the narrative.

From a long-term perspective, the most important takeaway is that the underlying market trend remains constructive. Indexes don’t reach new highs in weak environments. The S&P 500’s ability to approach and briefly exceed 7,000 reflects real earnings power and investor belief in continued innovation-driven growth. At the same time, the week reinforced a key lesson: strong markets can still be volatile markets. Volatility is not a sign that the system is broken; it is the mechanism by which markets reprice risk and digest uncertainty.

So how should investors respond? First, avoid confusing volatility with permanent impairment. A down day is not the same as a broken thesis. If you own companies with durable advantages, recurring revenue, and strong balance sheets, the right move is usually to stay disciplined. Second, keep position sizing honest. Concentration can create outperformance, but it also creates vulnerability when leadership stumbles. If a single holding or theme has grown too large, trimming can be prudent—not because you’ve stopped believing in the company, but because risk management protects your ability to stay invested.

Finally, look forward to the February calendar. More earnings reports, fresh inflation readings, and additional policy commentary will arrive quickly. Markets will continue to react to headlines, but the drivers of long-run returns remain steady: earnings growth, margin discipline, capital allocation, and competitive positioning. If those remain healthy, the best strategy is usually the boring one—stay diversified, keep a long horizon, and let great businesses compound through the noise.

We’ll keep watching breadth, credit conditions, and whether leadership broadens beyond the biggest names. For now, we treat pullbacks as chances to review conviction, not invitations to panic and add on weakness.

This week’s Stock Spotlight is anchored by Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), a smaller-cap name tied to the power efficiency trend that is quietly becoming one of the most important “picks and shovels” stories in modern computing. As AI data centers, electric vehicles, and fast-charging infrastructure scale globally, the need for more efficient power conversion and reduced heat loss becomes a real constraint, not a theoretical one. NVTS sits at the intersection of that theme through next-generation power semiconductors, and it’s exactly the type of company that can surprise investors when adoption curves steepen.

But the deeper long-term opportunity we want to highlight this week is Aurora Innovation (AUR) — and specifically why we believe it can be an excellent long-range stock for investors who can tolerate volatility. Frankie owns AUR and is currently up over 7% on the position, which matters less as a scoreboard today and more as a reminder of the mindset required: you’re not buying AUR for this week or this quarter, you’re buying it for the possibility that autonomous trucking becomes economically inevitable over the next decade.

Aurora’s core bet is straightforward: the trucking industry is massive, essential, and constrained. Driver shortages are real, turnover is expensive, and labor represents one of the biggest costs in long-haul logistics. Even in strong job markets, the lifestyle demands of long-haul driving limit how quickly supply can grow. Autonomy doesn’t need to replace every driver overnight to matter. If autonomous systems can reliably operate in specific highway corridors, at certain times, with rigorous safety validation, the economic value can be enormous. That’s exactly why autonomous trucking is arguably the most commercially logical “first win” for self-driving technology compared to wide-open consumer robotaxis everywhere.

Aurora’s approach focuses on building a system designed to handle freight use cases at high reliability. That emphasis matters because in autonomous vehicles, the gap between “it works most of the time” and “it works safely all the time” is the entire business. The market has learned the hard way that autonomy is not a simple software update; it’s an engineering, data, safety, and systems problem. Aurora’s long-term value depends on building trust — with regulators, OEM partners, logistics operators, and insurers. The companies that win won’t just have clever code. They’ll have repeatable safety processes, disciplined testing, and commercialization pathways that don’t break under real-world complexity.

From an investor standpoint, AUR represents what we call “optionality with a thesis.” The downside is clear: the timeline could stretch, deployment could be slower than hoped, and the market can punish early-stage companies that are still investing heavily in development. But the upside is also clear: if autonomous trucking becomes a mainstream tool to lower costs, reduce accidents, and move goods more efficiently, the winner can become a critical platform in the freight economy. That’s not a small opportunity — it’s one of the foundational layers of commerce.

AUR is also interesting because it sits at the crossroads of multiple powerful trends: AI perception models, high-performance compute, real-time mapping, fleet analytics, and industrial automation. In other words, it is not betting against technology momentum; it’s leaning into it. If AI hardware gets cheaper, if models get more capable, and if compute becomes more efficient, autonomy becomes more feasible — and AUR benefits from those tailwinds. The risk is execution, and we’re never shy about saying that. But in long-term investing, the biggest winners often look “too early” right up until they’re suddenly “on time.”

That’s why position sizing and patience are non-negotiable. We don’t treat AUR like a stable dividend compounder. We treat it as a strategic growth allocation — a smaller position that can grow into a meaningful winner if the thesis plays out, without jeopardizing the overall portfolio if the path is bumpy. Frankie’s ownership is a good example of building that muscle early: learning to think in years, not days, and letting a thesis develop.

Lastly, we like the asymmetry here. Many investors chase mature winners after the story is obvious and the valuation is stretched. AUR is not priced like an obvious winner — it’s priced like a question mark. If the question gets answered the right way over time, the return profile can be very attractive. That doesn’t mean the stock won’t swing; it likely will. But if autonomy adoption continues to move from concept to corridor to scale, AUR has a legitimate shot at becoming one of the defining platforms in freight autonomy.

Alphabet (GOOG) closed at $338.53 and is up ~97%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $400–$425, and Chris rates it Buy. We like GOOG for its dominant search and YouTube monetization engine, and we believe AI can expand ad performance and user engagement over time.

Amazon (AMZN) closed at $239.30 and is up ~15%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $280–$300, and Chris rates it Buy. We like AMZN for AWS cash flow durability and accelerating ad revenue, and we believe operational efficiency can keep margins expanding.

Apple (AAPL) closed at $259.48 and is up ~73%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets ~$300, and Chris rates it Buy. We like AAPL for ecosystem stickiness and pricing power, and we believe services growth supports long-term free cash flow.

Costco (COST) closed at $940.25 and is up ~100%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $1,050–$1,100, and Chris rates it Buy. We like COST for its membership model and customer loyalty, and we believe disciplined execution makes it a rare “steady compounder.”

Deere & Company (DE) closed at $528.00 and is up ~51%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets ~$600, and Chris rates it Buy. We like DE for precision agriculture leadership, and we believe automation and productivity demand are long-term tailwinds.

GE Aerospace (GE) closed at $306.79 and is up ~210%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $340–$360, and Chris rates it Buy. We like GE for strong engine demand and aftermarket economics, and we believe margins can keep improving as the spinoff matures.

GE Healthcare (GEHC) closed at $78.97 and is down ~4%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets $95–$100, and Chris rates it Hold. We like GEHC for imaging and diagnostics durability, and we believe time and execution can unlock value as a standalone business.

GE Vernova (GEV) closed at $726.37 and is up ~617%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $800–$900, and Chris rates it Buy. We like GEV for grid modernization and global electrification, and we believe multi-year infrastructure spending supports continued growth.

Kroger (KR) closed at $62.85 and is up ~28%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets ~$70, and Chris rates it Hold. We like KR for defensive cash flow and recession resilience, and we believe it helps balance volatility from higher-growth holdings.

Meta Platforms (META) closed at $716.50 and is up ~24%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $800–$850, and Chris rates it Buy. We like META for AI-driven ad performance and engagement improvements, and we believe disciplined spending can keep profitability strong.

Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $430.29 and is up ~876%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $500+, and Chris rates it Buy. We like MSFT as a cornerstone cloud and AI platform, and we believe recurring enterprise revenue supports long-term compounding.

Procter & Gamble (PG) closed at $151.77 and is up ~87%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets ~$170, and Chris rates it Hold. We like PG for brand strength and pricing power, and we believe it adds stability and dividends across cycles.

Amazon (AMZN) closed at $239.30 and is up ~111%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $280–$300, and Chris rates it Buy. We like AMZN for AWS durability and ad growth, and we believe scale advantages can keep margins rising.

American Express (AXP) closed at $352.17 and is up ~111%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $380–$400, and Chris rates it Buy. We like AXP for premium customer loyalty and pricing power, and we believe travel and business spend trends support long-term growth.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) closed at $30.20 and is up ~102%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets $34–$36, and Chris rates it Hold. We like KMI for stable pipeline cash flows and dividend orientation, and we believe it plays a defensive role in the portfolio.

Verizon (VZ) closed at $44.52 and is down ~12%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets ~$50, and Chris rates it Hold. We like VZ for predictable cash flow and dividend support, and we believe it can stabilize returns when growth stocks wobble.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed at $141.40 and is up ~69%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $155–$165, and Chris rates it Buy. We like XOM for free-cash-flow strength and disciplined capital returns, and we believe global energy demand supports long-term profitability.

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $430.41 and is up ~35%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $480–$525, and Chris rates it Buy. We like TSLA for EV leadership and energy storage growth, and we believe autonomy remains valuable long-term optionality.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed at $146.59 and is down ~4%. Analysts rate it Hold, and Chris rates it Buy. We like PLTR for mission-critical government relationships and expanding enterprise adoption, and we believe its AI platform can deepen customer stickiness.

Alibaba Group (BABA) closed at $169.56 and is up ~119%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $200–$220, and Trip rates it Buy. We like BABA for dominant commerce scale and improving fundamentals, and we believe valuation can expand if investor sentiment toward China improves.

Strategy (MSTR) closed at $149.71 and is down ~14%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets $170–$190, and Trip rates it Hold. We like MSTR as a high-volatility Bitcoin proxy, and we believe it should remain appropriately sized due to drawdown risk.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) closed at $441.41 and is up ~99%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $480–$520, and Trip rates it Buy. We like CRWD for best-in-class cloud security and strong retention, and we believe secular demand for cybersecurity is durable.

Broadcom (AVGO) closed at $331.30 and is up ~134%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $370–$400, and Trip rates it Buy. We like AVGO for diversified semiconductor exposure and AI infrastructure relevance, and we believe disciplined capital allocation supports compounding.

New Gold (NGD) closed at $10.03 and is down ~22%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets ~$12, and Trip rates it Hold. We like NGD as a leveraged gold exposure, and we believe it remains speculative and commodity-dependent.

NextEra Energy (NEE) closed at $87.90 and is up ~0%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $95–$105, and Trip rates it Hold. We like NEE for renewable leadership and regulated stability, and we believe rates will influence near-term valuation.

Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $430.29 and is up ~102%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $500+, and Trip rates it Buy. We like MSFT for enterprise dominance and cloud scale, and we believe AI integration strengthens pricing and retention.

GE Vernova (GEV) closed at $726.37 and is up ~625%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $800–$900, and Trip rates it Buy. We like GEV for electrification and grid investment tailwinds, and we believe power demand growth is a multi-year driver.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed at $80.07 and is down ~8%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets $90–$100, and Trip rates it Hold. We like RKLB for space systems positioning, and we believe execution and contract wins will drive the next leg.

L3Harris Technologies (LHX) closed at $342.85 and is down ~4%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $380–$400, and Trip rates it Buy. We like LHX for defense electronics leadership and contract visibility, and we believe geopolitical realities support sustained demand.

Apple (AAPL) closed at $259.48 and is up ~124%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets ~$300, and Trip rates it Buy. We like AAPL for ecosystem strength and cash generation, and we believe services growth supports steady compounding.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) closed at $111.21 and is down ~2%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $130–$150, and Trip rates it Buy. We like ASTS for disruptive satellite connectivity potential, and we acknowledge it’s a higher-risk innovation bet.

NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $191.13 and is up ~63%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $230–$260, and Trip rates it Buy. We like NVDA for AI compute dominance and data center momentum, and we believe demand remains strong across the AI stack.

Iren (IREN) closed at $53.74 and is down ~10%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets $60–$65, and Trip rates it Hold. We like IREN for renewable-powered mining exposure, and we believe crypto sensitivity requires conservative sizing.

Chevron (CVX) closed at $176.90 and is up ~7%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $190–$200, and Trip rates it Buy. We like CVX for dividend strength and disciplined capital returns, and we believe energy remains strategically important.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) closed at $25.10 and is down ~3%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets ~$30, and Trip rates it Hold. We like BMNR as a speculative blockchain infrastructure play, and we recognize volatility is part of the package.

Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) closed at $8.58 and is up ~15%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $10–$12, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like NVTS for next-gen power semiconductor leadership, and we believe EVs and data centers are long-term demand drivers.

GE Vernova (GEV) closed at $726.37 and is up ~625%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $800–$900, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like GEV for grid modernization and electrification tailwinds, and we believe infrastructure spending supports long-term growth.

Nebius Group (NBIS) closed at $85.19 and is up ~1%. Analysts rate it Hold with targets $90–$100, and Frankie rates it Hold. We like NBIS for cloud and AI exposure, and we believe it needs time to prove durable public-market execution.

Microsoft (MSFT) closed at $430.29 and is up ~285%. Analysts rate it Strong Buy with targets $500+, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like MSFT for enterprise dominance and AI integration, and we believe recurring revenue supports strong compounding.

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $430.41 and is up ~45%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $480–$525, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like TSLA for EV leadership and energy storage growth, and we believe autonomy provides long-term upside optionality.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed at $146.59 and is up ~2%. Analysts rate it Hold, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like PLTR for deep government relationships and expanding enterprise adoption, and we believe AI products can increase contract value over time.

Aurora Innovation (AUR) closed at $4.20 and is up ~8%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $6–$8, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like AUR for autonomous trucking focus and long-term logistics efficiency gains, and we believe corridor-based deployment is a realistic path to scale.

Meta Platforms (META) closed at $716.50 and is up ~24%. Analysts rate it Buy with targets $800–$850, and Frankie rates it Buy. We like META for ad recovery and AI-driven engagement, and we believe disciplined cost controls support durable margins.

Fix-and-flip investing is one of the most active real estate strategies because it can generate meaningful cash in a relatively short period of time. But flips are not “easy money.” They are a business, and the investors who succeed treat them like one: they buy with discipline, renovate with systems, and sell with a plan. The biggest misconception is that flipping is about construction. In reality, the construction is only one part of the process. The real skill is buying right, controlling risk, and managing timelines.

The flip profit is made at the purchase, not at the sale. When you buy a property, you must create a margin wide enough to handle renovation surprises, market shifts, financing costs, and delays. Many investors use a rule of thumb like the 70% rule (buy + rehab ≤ 70% of ARV minus repairs), but whatever framework you use, the goal is the same: build a cushion. A flip with a thin margin is not a flip; it’s a gamble. If the market cools even slightly or your contractor runs behind, your entire profit can evaporate.

Next is renovation scope control. The biggest mistake flippers make is over-improving. You’re not renovating your dream home — you’re renovating for the buyer pool in that neighborhood. The best flips focus on the highest ROI areas: kitchens, bathrooms, flooring, paint, and curb appeal. Cosmetic upgrades that make a home feel clean, modern, and “move-in ready” usually drive the fastest resale. Luxury upgrades that exceed the neighborhood standards often don’t pay back. Winning flippers are disciplined enough to stop upgrading once the property matches the local comps.

Contractor management is where flips are won or lost. Reliable contractors are not optional; they are the engine of the business. Every extra week on a flip costs money: interest, utilities, insurance, property taxes, and opportunity cost. This is why timelines matter as much as budgets. Great flippers create clear scopes of work, use written contracts, schedule weekly walkthroughs, and track progress like a project manager. They don’t assume things will work out — they measure and manage. If you want predictable profits, you need predictable processes.

Financing also shapes outcomes. Many flips are funded with hard money or private capital because speed matters; great deals don’t wait. Hard money is expensive, but it can be worth it if you buy right and execute quickly. The key is to treat financing as a line item you control through speed. If your plan is a 3-month flip and it becomes a 7-month flip, the financing costs can crush your profit. Investors who succeed either build a system to finish on time or choose financing that matches their execution reality.

Market conditions should always be respected. Flips perform best when demand is strong and inventory is tight, but the best operators can flip in many environments because they control the purchase price and the rehab scope. In slower markets, you need wider margins and more conservative ARV assumptions. In hot markets, you must resist the temptation to overpay because competition is fierce. The investors who get hurt are usually the ones who assume the market will save them. Great flippers assume the opposite — they assume the market could soften — and they still buy deals that work.

Selling strategy matters too. Staging, professional photography, and clean presentation can add real dollars. Buyers make emotional decisions, and a staged, bright, well-photographed home often sells faster and closer to top-of-range comps. Pricing also matters: overpricing burns time, and time burns profit. The best approach is to price realistically based on comps and adjust quickly if buyer activity is weak. A fast sale at a strong price beats a “perfect price” that never materializes.

Finally, the real wealth-building power of flips is what you do with the profits. Flips can create lump-sum cash that can be redeployed into long-term rentals, used for down payments, or invested into dividend and growth portfolios. Many investors use flips as a cash engine to build passive wealth over time. Done correctly, flips become the fuel for a bigger machine: rentals, development, or diversified investing. The key is discipline: treat flips as a repeatable business, not a one-off project.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or real estate professional before making investment decisions.